In the face of drought and a pandemic, Queensland’s agricultural sector is standing strong according to State government forecasts.

New data forecasts Queensland’s agribusiness and food sector is set to bring in $18.4 billion in 2020-21- suffering a one percent decline compared to the previous year.

Agriculture Minister Mark Furner said the latest forecast was remarkable, after years of drought and pandemic caused disruption to the sector.

“The impact of the pandemic on Queensland’s primary industries is expected to be a decrease of $87 million at the farm gate in 2020-21,” he said.

“But it could have been much worse, and some sectors have actually thrived. In 2020-21, Queensland’s bulk commodities and exports of high-value products are expected to continue, while nursery sales have surged due to strong interest in home gardening.”

Adept Economics director Gene Tunny said Queensland’s agricultural industry should take confidence in the forecast despite ongoing trade tensions with China and other short term challenges.

“The long-term outlook is very good, particularly with the growing Asian middle-class,” he said.

“China is a concern, but ultimately trade is in everyone’s interest, and long term, you’d have to be confident we will continue to trade with China.”

Mr. Tunney said that agriculture could be a challenge to forecast because of the variables facing the sector.

“Agriculture can be difficult to forecast because so much depends on the weather,” he said.

“Prices can move a lot, and that can affect your forecast.

“There are a lot of short-term issues facing agriculture, but long-term, it’s looking very good.”

The data reveals that fruit and vegetables, cut flowers, forestry, and fisheries will be the most affected, with a decrease of $179 million. More than half of this is expected to be offset by increased output in production nurseries.